Is It Too Late for Another Candidate?

Two months ago I suggested that it might not be too late for another presidential candidate to enter the race. And I cited some ancient history:
Barry Goldwater announced his candidacy for president on January 3, 1964, about nine weeks before the New Hampshire primary. A decade later, Ronald Reagan announced his challenge to President Gerald Ford on November 20, 1975. After that unsuccessful race, he announced another, this time successful candidacy, on November 13, 1979.
Now the William J. Clinton Presidential Center (whatever happened to good ol' Bill? I guess "William J. Clinton" sounds more presidential) reminds us of a more recent president who started his campaign later than any of today's contenders. From September 30 to October 3, the center will celebrate the 20th anniversary of Bill Clinton's announcement of his candidacy, which happened on October 2, 1991. Is time running out? Or could a candidate with something attractive to offer still get into the race? It's still earlier in the season than when Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton announced their candidacies.

Posted on September 15, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

Adam Gopnik Fails the Ideological Turing Test

Can people on one side of a political debate understand why others disagree with them? Sometimes it doesn't seem so. Take Adam Gopnik's article about "declinism" in the September 12 New Yorker. (Online for subscribers only, alas.) It's an interesting review of new books about the decline of America and/or the West by Ian Morris, Niall Ferguson, and Thomas Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum. In the course of it Gopnik explains that there is "another side" in American politics from the good and decent side of President Obama and such people as Friedman and Mandelbaum. And that side is "inexorably opposed to these apparently good things."
The reason we don't have beautiful new airports and efficient bullet trains is not that we have inadvertently stumbled upon stumbling blocks; it's that there are considerable numbers of Americans for whom these things are simply symbols of a feared central government, and who would, when they travel, rather sweat in squalor than surrender the money to build a better terminal. They hate fast trains and efficient airports for the same reason that seventeenth-century Protestants hated the beautiful Baroque churches of Rome when they saw them: they were luxurious symbols of an earthly power they despised.
This is the sort of place where it's a good idea for an author to stop and think: Is that really what advocates of smaller government think? They actually hate the very idea of fast trains and efficient air travel? They'd rather sweat in squalor than pay for better service? He goes on:
We don't have a better infrastructure or decent elementary education exactly because many people are willing to sacrifice faster movement between our great cities, or better-informed children, in support of their belief that the government should always be given as little money as possible.
Sure, he's claiming, we small-government folks would like our kids to learn to read. But not if it means giving up one solitary dime to the predatory state. Gopnik might have added that we crotchety libertarians would rather a hundred guilty men go free than a single innocent be jailed. Or that we'd rather see the people of Iraq suffer under Saddam Hussein rather than send a single American to die in the desert. Except that those are "ideological convictions" that New Yorker writers share. In those cases they understand that there are trade-offs, that benefits come with costs, that the end does not always justify the means. And having identified those concepts, I wonder if Mr. Gopnik might try again to understand why some Americans oppose an array of government spending programs. Is it really that they "simply" fear good schools and fast trains? Or is it possible that they -- we -- have actual arguments? That we have actually enunciated those arguments in blog posts, op-eds, essays, and even books? And that few of us have said we'd rather sit in traffic than "give too much pleasure" to liberals? Let me suggest to Mr. Gopnik a few reasons that some us oppose the various spending programs that concern him:
  1. We know that vastly increased government expenditures often don't achieve their intentions, such as the 190 percent increase in both inflation-adjusted federal education spending and school infrastructure spending that hasn't budged test scores.
  2. We know that many wonderful things, perhaps including truly fast trains, could be created at massive cost, but that you always have to weigh costs and benefits. Children say, "I want it." Adults say, "How much does it cost, and what would I have to give up to have it?"
  3. We believe that people spend their own money more prudently than they spend other people's money. So goods and services produced in the competitive marketplace are likely to be produced more efficiently and with more regard for real consumer demand than goods produced by government, and thus we should try to keep as many aspects of life as possible outside the control of government.
  4. We believe that you'll get better schools, trains, and planes if they're produced privately than if they're created by government. And thus, since we want good schools and good transportation, we want them produced by competitive enterprise.
  5. We believe that the burden of taxes, spending, debt, and regulation is already reducing economic growth, and that our society would have more wealth for more people and better technology if it had a government smaller in size, scope, and power. Try plotting government spending vs. the increase in the speed of human mobility; I think you'd find an inverse relationship, with very little increase in the past generation of massive government spending.
  6. Yes, we have a philosophical preference for freedom. Not freedom at all costs, not anarchy, but liberty and limited government as the natural condition for human flourishing. We believe that liberal society is resilient; it can withstand many burdens and continue to flourish; but it is not infinitely resilient.  Those who claim to believe in liberal principles but advocate more and more confiscation of the wealth created by productive people, more and more restrictions on voluntary interaction, more and more exceptions to property rights and the rule of law, more and more transfer of power from society to state, are -- perhaps unwittingly -- engaged in the ultimately deadly undermining of civilization.
And you know, when I think about Mr. Gopnik's point that my Scottish Protestant ancestors "hated the beautiful Baroque churches of Rome [because] they were luxurious symbols of an earthly power they despised," it occurs to me: Those churches are beautiful. So are the pyramids. But if President Obama or Paul Krugman or the AFL-CIO proposed to tax productive working people to build beautiful churches and pyramids, I would oppose it. Even if I wanted more beautiful churches, I would not be willing to force my fellow citizens to contribute to my satisfaction. And the same principle applies to faster trains between Washington and New York, which I absolutely do want. And which I believe the market would deliver, if we had a market in transportation and if faster trains are in fact a good use of our economy's scarce resources. Bryan Caplan recently challenged Paul Krugman and other intellectuals to an "ideological Turing test" -- a test to see who could state an opposing view as clearly and persuasively as its proponents could. I think Gopnik would fail that test. Assuming that he has in this article stated as fairly as possible what he actually believes his opponents believe, then he seems far off the mark. Would he like to try again, to explain and then criticize the views laid out above or in books by Hayek, Nozick, Friedman, and Epstein? In the meantime, I found much of his article interesting, and I agreed with many of his conclusions about the achievements of Western liberalism. But as he wrote, after taking issue with some of Niall Ferguson's analyses of the French Enlightenment, Darwinianism, and the sixties, "when someone gets the sixties Beatles this wrong you have to wonder how well he really is doing with the sixth-century barbarians." And when somebody gets the argument for limited government this wrong, you have to wonder whether he's accurately described the books under review.

Posted on September 12, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

Do People Pay for These Forecasts?

The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers said in a report that Obama’s plan — the American Jobs Act — would boost economic growth by 1.3 percentage points in 2012 and lead to 1.3 million new jobs.... Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, was even more enthusiastic about the plan. He said the jobs package would increase economic growth by 2 percentage points in 2012 and add 1.9 million jobs.
--Washington Post, September 10, 2011
Obama’s program received generally favorable reviews from economists. “Is it worth doing?” wrote Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight. ”Yes, it is a bolder-than-expected attempt to inject fiscal stimulus to support an ailing recovery.”
--Washington Post, September 10, 2011 Here's another view of the Obama proposal. Here's a critique of these forecasts. And here's a graph reminding us what happened after President Obama predicted that his first stimulus would actually stimulate the economy.

Posted on September 10, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

Governor Veto

David Boaz

During his two terms as governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson got the nickname "Governor Veto" as he vetoed 750 bills sent to him by the legislature. Now California's Jerry Brown is bucking for that title. In June he vetoed the state budget, something that apparently had never happened before. In his veto message he wrote that the budget "continues big deficits for years to come and adds billions of dollars of new debt... contains legally questionable maneuvers, costly borrowing and unrealistic savings."

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And this week, facing a flurry of bills landing on his desk, he's giving his veto pen a workout. On Wednesday he vetoed 12 bills, 11 of them sponsored by Democrats in the heavily Democratic legislature. As John Myers of KQED noted, he offered pithy and philosophical arguments in some of his veto messages. Take the bill to impose a $25 fine for kids who ski or snowboard without a helmet. Brown vetoed it, saying, "I am concerned about the continuing and seemingly inexorable transfer of authority from parents to the state. Not every human problem deserves a law."

He also vetoed a bill that would require initiative signature gatherers to wear a button if they're being paid, saying:

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If it is acceptable to force paid signature gatherers to place identifying badges on their chests, will similar requirements soon be placed on paid campaign workers? I choose not to go down this slippery slope where the state decides what citizens must wear when petitioning their government.

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He had earlier received the "John Lilburne Award" from the Citizens in Charge Foundation for vetoing another attempt to restrict petitioning.

Brown's libertarian streak isn't entirely surprising. When he became governor the first time, in 1975, he talked about "an era of limits" and increased state spending less than his predecessor, Ronald Reagan. He opposed Proposition 13 but then embraced it after the voters did and rode its implementation to easy reelection. Running for president, he supported a balanced budget amendment. He liberalized the state's marijuana law, decriminalized homosexuality, and vigorously opposed the antigay Briggs Initiative. He declared on Meet the Press that his goal was "To stand up to the special pleaders who are encamped, I should say, encircling the state capitol, and to see through their particular factional claims to the broad public interest."

I had high hopes that the 73-year-old newly elected governor, with no more dreams of higher office, would aggressively confront California's out-of-control spending and special-interest deals. Brown watcher Tim Cavanaugh of Reason says that any hope that Brown would actually take on the spending interests, many of them public employee unions that helped him win office again, ended with his sweetheart contract for the prison guards union. But I'm still hopeful. Governor Brown knows his state is in debt up to its eyeballs, he knows where the money goes, and he knows that the special pleaders are still encircling the state capitol. And he's still skeptical about the "inexorable transfer of authority ... to the state" and the idea that "every human problem deserves a law." That's a good basis for a new era of limits on power.

Posted on September 8, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

President Obama vs. the People on Smaller Government

Writers in the establishment media, such as E. J. Dionne Jr., Ezra Klein, and indeed two letters in today's Washington Post, keep insisting that President Obama is moderate or centrist, contrary to the claims of us hysterics who think that a trillion-dollar increase in annual spending, $4 trillion in new debt, a government takeover of two automobile companies, a complete government takeover of health care (which the president preferred but couldn't get out of Congress), and sweeping new financial regulation that doesn't reform the easy-money and housing-preference policies that caused the financial crisis is a pretty statist agenda. But it looks like the American people see a big gap between the kind of government they want and the kind they think President Obama wants. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that
there has been little change in the widespread public perception that Obama favors a bigger federal government that offers more services. That highlights a major disconnect between Obama and the public. Only 38 percent of those polled say they favor a larger government with more services, while 56 percent say they favor a smaller government with fewer services.
As depicted in this graphic: Voters understand that President Obama favors larger government. Duh. And they don't. As I’ve noted previously, I’ve always thought the “smaller government” question is incomplete. It offers respondents a benefit of larger government — “more services” — but it doesn’t mention that the cost of “larger government with more services” is higher taxes. The question ought to give both the cost and the benefit for each option. The Rasmussen poll does ask the question that way, and found a week ago that voters preferred “smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes” by a margin of 62 to 28 percent. I know some people are skeptical of Rasmussen’s polling. (A Republican consulting firm recently found results very similar to the Rasmussen poll.) So I invite Gallup, Harris, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other pollsters to ask this more balanced question and see what results they get. Meanwhile, only 38 percent of Americans want "larger government with more services," but 70 percent think President Obama does. There's a number that ought to worry Democratic strategists.

Posted on September 6, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

He’s No Libertarian

Dana Milbank of the Washington Post warns readers that "Rick Perry is no libertarian." Good point. Now if only the Post had warned voters about Barack Obama back in 2007. And alas, Milbank could be kept busy for the next few weeks writing about presidential candidates who are "no libertarian."

Posted on August 31, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

How Judges Protect Liberty

In my Encyclopedia Britannica column this week, I take a look at "the responsibility of judges to strike down laws, regulations, and executive and legislative actions that exceed the authorized powers of government, violate individual rights, or fail to adhere to the rules of due process." Certainly they don't always live up to those expectations, as Robert A. Levy and William Mellor wrote in The Dirty Dozen: How Twelve Supreme Court Cases Radically Expanded Government and Eroded Freedom The column might have been more timely last summer, when Judge Andrew Napolitano concluded one of his Freedom Watch programs on the Fox Business Channel by hailing four federal judges who had courageously and correctly struck down state and federal laws:
  • Judge Martin L. C. Feldman, who blocked President Obama’s moratorium on oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico;
  • Judge Susan Bolton, who blocked Arizona’s restrictive immigration law;
  • Judge Henry Hudson, who refused to dismiss Virginia’s challenge to the health care mandate; and
  • Judge Vaughn Walker, who struck down California’s Proposition 8 banning gay marriage.
That was a good summer for judicial protection of liberty. But as I note, there have been more examples this year, reminding us of James Madison's predictions that independent judges would be "an impenetrable bulwark against every assumption of power in the legislative or executive."

Posted on August 30, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

David Boaz on the economic costs of Hurricane Irene on FBN

Posted on August 29, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

Stop the Madness, President Calderon

The Wall Street Journal covers a single day in Mexico's drug war, a day on which 25 people died in separate incidents. The summary paragraphs tell a story of failure:
Since President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006, declaring war on traffickers, roughly 43,000 people have been killed in drug-related homicides here, according to government figures and newspaper estimates. The pace of killings is escalating. More than half the dead, 22,000, were killed in the past 18 months, a rate of one every 35 minutes.... Mexico's murder rate has more than doubled, to 22 deaths per 100,000 residents in 2010, in just four years, a period that parallels the drug war. Before that, it had been falling steadily. In the U.S. the murder rate is about 5 per 100,000.
This policy is not working. President Calderon, I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken. Read the advice of President Fox's foreign minister or this discussion by Cato's Ted Galen Carpenter. American policymakers should also recognize that this crisis threatens us -- and that we can help to end it.

Posted on August 29, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

Judges and the Rule of Law

David Boaz

Two weeks ago federal judge Nancy Freudenthal ruled against an Interior Department policy that rolled back exemptions from environmental review for certain oil-and-gas activities on federal lands. In "a setback for the Obama administration, which has sought to expand scrutiny of the environmental impact of oil-and-gas drilling," she said that the policies were issued without proper public notice and comment.

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Three months ago a Wisconsin judge ruled that Wisconsin's controversial collective-bargaining had been passed improperly. (That ruling was reversed in June by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and the law went into effect.)

Whatever you think about the substance of these laws, we should all be glad that there are independent judges, in both federal and state courts, prepared to strike down the actions of the legislative and executive branches when necessary. When liberal judges do that, conservatives disparage it as "judicial activism." When conservative judges do it, it's liberals who complain about "judicial activism." But everyone who believes in individual rights, limited government, and the rule of law should welcome a vigilant judiciary. It is the responsibility of judges to strike down laws, regulations, and executive and legislative actions that exceed the authorized powers of government, violate individual rights, or fail to adhere to the rules of due process.

In proposing the Bill of Rights in the House of Representatives, James Madison said that

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independent tribunals of justice will consider themselves in a peculiar manner the guardians of those rights; they will be an impenetrable bulwark against every assumption of power in the legislative or executive; they will be naturally led to resist every encroachment upon rights expressly stipulated for in the constitution by the declaration of rights.

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And in Federalist 78, Alexander Hamilton wrote that the judiciary would be the "least dangerous" branch of government because it possesses the power of neither sword nor purse.

Sometimes the courts live up to those aspirations, in cases from Lochner and Brown v. Board right up to the last days of the past Supreme Court term. Sometimes not so much, as Robert A. Levy and William Mellor wrote in The Dirty Dozen: How Twelve Supreme Court Cases Radically Expanded Government and Eroded Freedom. But as legal scholar Richard Epstein said in a 1984 debate with Judge Antonin Scalia, "the imperfections of the judicial system must be matched with the imperfections of the political branches of government." And legislatures make plenty of mistakes.

Last summer Judge Andrew Napolitano concluded one of his Freedom Watch programs on the Fox Business Channel by hailing four federal judges who had courageously and correctly struck down state and federal laws:

  • Judge Martin L. C. Feldman, who blocked President Obama's moratorium on oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico;
  • Judge Susan Bolton, who blocked Arizona's restrictive immigration law;
  • Judge Henry Hudson, who refused to dismiss Virginia's challenge to the health care mandate; and
  • Judge Vaughn Walker, who struck down California's Proposition 8 banning gay marriage.

It was a remarkable summer for judicial protection of individual rights and limited government.

One charge that's often raised in these politically polarized times is that judges simply rule on the basis of their partisan allegiance — Democratic-appointed judges uphold Obamacare, Republican-appointed judges rule against it. That would be a troubling pattern. One of the reasons we have life tenure for federal judges is to free them from such political pressures. Fortunately, the charge is not entirely true. Judge Jeffrey Sutton, a former law clerk to Justice Scalia who was vigorously opposed by liberals when President George W. Bush appointed him to the Sixth Circuit, voted to uphold the individual mandate. Judge Frank Hull, a Clinton appointee, voted in the 11th Circuit to strike down the law. Judge Freudenthal, who struck down the Obama administration's attempt to make oil and gas drilling on federal lands more difficult, is not only a Democrat; she was appointed to the bench in 2009 by President Obama while her husband Dave served as the Democratic governor of Wyoming. And perhaps most famously, Judge Vaughn Walker, who struck down Proposition 8, was appointed by President Reagan in 1987; his nomination was so effectively opposed by Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, the NAACP, and gay-rights groups that he had to be renominated two years later by another Republican president, George Bush.

Democrats and Republicans alike can read the Constitution. They both know that it says that "Congress shall make no law ... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press." They both know that the principal author of the Constitution, James Madison, wrote in Federalist 45, "The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined." They both know that American citizens, even those accused of terrorism, are entitled to their "constitutional rights — like habeas corpus, which requires the government to justify continued detentions, and the Sixth Amendment, which assures a speedy and public jury trial with assistance of counsel."

The separation of powers, with an independent judiciary, is essential to the rule of law and the protection of freedom. It is refreshing to see how often judges do live up to the expectation that they would "be an impenetrable bulwark against every assumption of power in the legislative or executive."

Posted on August 29, 2011  Posted to Cato@Liberty

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